How to spot a claim that won't survive checking.
The internet is full of confident market claims and almost entirely free of evidence. These are the tells — learn them and you can ignore most of what you read.
The tells
Six things that should stop you.
The two-minute check
You don't need a Bloomberg terminal. You need to ask four questions, in order:
- What exactly is being claimed? Restate it in plain language. Vague claims often evaporate at this step — there was never a testable proposition to begin with.
- What would have to be true for this to work? Name the assumptions. Now check the easiest one.
- What is being left out? The most useful question on this list. A claim is usually not a lie; it is a true thing with the inconvenient half removed.
- Who benefits if I believe this? Not a conspiracy — just an honest look at incentive. Somebody holding a position wants company.
The point of this is not cynicism. Plenty of confident claims turn out to be right. The point is that you should know which parts you're taking on faith before you commit money to them.
Frequently asked questions
What's the biggest red flag?
Certainty. Markets don't produce it, so anyone offering it is either mistaken or selling. 'Guaranteed' returns in particular are the oldest tell in financial fraud.
Does that mean confident claims are always wrong?
No — some are right. The point is to know which parts of a claim are evidenced and which are hope, before you act on it. That distinction is the entire skill.
Can TRUE do this for me?
Yes — paste the claim into claim check and TRUE will show what the data supports, what it weakens, and what the author left out. It won't deliver a verdict; it shows you the evidence so you can judge.
Don't trust the hype. Check it.
Paste any market claim and see what the data actually says.
For research and education. Not financial advice.