Argue against yourself. Properly.
If you cannot make the case against your own position convincingly, you don't understand it — you're just fond of it. This is how to do it honestly, rather than performing it.
For research and education. Not financial advice.
Why this is the whole game
Everyone agrees confirmation bias is bad. Almost nobody actually does anything about it, because the remedy is unpleasant: you have to go looking for evidence that you're wrong, and then take it seriously when you find it.
The good news is that this is a skill, not a personality trait. It can be practised.
The rule: steelman, don't strawman
A fake bear case is easy to spot — it's the one you can dismiss in a sentence. "The bears think the company is a fraud, which is obviously nonsense." That isn't the bear case. That's a scarecrow you built so you could knock it down and feel rigorous.
The real test: can you write the bear case so well that a bear would read it and say 'yes, that's exactly right'? If not, you haven't found it yet.
The five questions
- What does this price already assume? Most bear cases aren't "the business is bad" — they're "the business is fine, and the price assumes something considerably better than fine."
- What is the single load-bearing assumption? Find the one claim the whole thesis rests on. Now: what happens if it's wrong by 20%?
- Who is on the other side of this trade, and why? Someone sold you the share. They are not necessarily an idiot. What do they know or believe that you don't?
- What would this look like from the outside? If a stranger described your position back to you without the story attached, would it still sound sensible?
- What evidence would change my mind — and would it, really? Write it down in advance. If the honest answer is "nothing would change my mind," you don't have a thesis. You have a belief.
The hardest part is the last one. Most people can produce a bear case on demand. Far fewer will act on it when it turns out to be right. Writing down, in advance, the specific evidence that would falsify your view is the only reliable defence against quietly moving the goalposts later.
Frequently asked questions
How do I know if my bear case is any good?
If someone who genuinely disagrees with you would read it and say 'yes, that's the argument' — it's a real bear case. If you can dismiss it in one sentence, you built a scarecrow.
Can I get an AI to do this?
Yes, and it is one of the things AI is genuinely excellent at — it has no ego invested in your thesis. Ask it explicitly for the strongest case against your view. TRUE produces the counter-case whether you ask for it or not.
Have your thesis pulled apart.
TRUE argues the other side by default — it isn't attached to your idea.
For research and education. Not financial advice.